Mission conclusion
Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier on the ISAF mission in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is always good for a surprise. Following months of difficult negotiations, the two presidential candidates Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah finally reached agreement on a government of national unity. They thereby opened the door for a peaceful handover of power as the result of an election.
Pressure from the international community was important here, and it has been worth it. Of course, the election did not meet our standards; we should not forget that. The process of forming a government in Kabul shows just how difficult it is to learn democracy. Democracy does not only mean that the majority decides; the interests of the minority must also be protected. The new president, Ashraf Ghani, and the head of his administration, Abdullah Abdullah, have agreed to share power as equitably as possible. From now on, both bear joint responsibility for ensuring that Afghanistan can put its bloody past behind it. Germany remains willing to support Afghanistan.
No subject has influenced the foreign policy debate in Germany in recent years more than our involvement on the Hindu Kush. It began with the attacks of 11 September and the Petersberg Conference at the end of 2001.
We already recognised then that “black holes” on the world map where international terrorism can recruit, train and plan attacks unhindered also represent a threat to our own security. At that time we were afraid that Germany could also become a target of terrorist attacks controlled from Afghanistan.
The military mission by NATO and its partners will cease at the end of 2014. That is not the end of our involvement, but it is a turning point. It offers an opportunity to self-critically take stock. We have achieved a considerable amount for the development of Afghanistan: people’s average life expectancy has increased from 45 to 60 years, and the mortality rate of mothers and children has decreased dramatically. Over 200,000 students are enrolled in higher education. There are tarmacked roads, electricity, mobile phones and cars. And there is something else that is not evident at first glance: a civil society that maintains a significant number of independent media. Today Afghanistan is ahead of its neighbours India, Pakistan and Uzbekistan on the annual World Press Freedom Index compiled by the organisation Reporters Without Borders.
These advances are real, but unfortunately they have not influenced our picture of the Afghanistan mission. Too little has been achieved for too long for that – until now. The drug economy continues to flourish. Corruption at all levels prevents the modernisation of business and government. Powerful warlords rule in many provinces, and violence still reigns in parts of the country. Anyone who had hoped for faster equal rights for women cannot be satisfied, although there have been a number of advances.
And yes, the radical Islamist Taliban are still there. That is disappointing. But is it our fault? Would it have been possible to solve all these problems in twelve years? There is a lot of evidence that it was our biggest mistake to raise excessively high expectations – and then not put enough effort into fulfilling them. We did not only want to eliminate the security threat emanating from Afghanistan, but also to swiftly lead the country into a new future based on our ideas.
We paid too little attention then to what was feasible within a short space of time in a country that had experienced 30 years of civil war. As a result, we are far from achieving some of the promises. We should not underestimate the continuing consequences of these mistaken expectations today.
In hindsight, however, we would perhaps have done some things differently. That can be seen, for example, in relation to the Taliban. At the Petersberg Conference they were not involved in creating a peace order because at the time they seemed finished. We probably underestimated the Taliban as a political factor for too long. At least, we have learned from mistakes and also corrected them. With the 10-point plan in 2009 I provided the impetus that facilitated the noticeably improved coordination of reconstruction and development aid. The setting up of security forces was expedited throughout the country. As a result, we have created the foundation that will enable the Bundeswehr to withdraw 3,000 soldiers this year. We do not have to hurriedly leave the country like the Americans left Vietnam in 1975. We will continue to support the Afghan security forces and invest 430 million euros a year in civilian reconstruction aid until 2016.
What have we learned from this? We must show greater commitment, must not only consider military action. We need to take the long-term view. But we also need to show humility. We must accept how little some things can be changed from outside. Nevertheless, a glance at the political world map makes me warn against prematurely dismissing our mission as a failure.
Several countries decided in favour of military strikes to prevent a bloody civil war in Libya. However, no one was willing to make a more far-reaching commitment. Today, the country threatens to disintegrate in a civil war.
The international community could not agree on concerted action in Syria. As a result, a vacuum arose that the Islamic State (IS) reign of terror has begun to fill. In Iraq it is becoming evident how easily a politically divided multiethnic state can spin out of control. Here, too, IS has filled the gap with horrific consequences for the entire region.
Compared to this, the results of the Afghanistan mission appear rather positive. We have liberated a country from terrorist rule; we have not let it fall into chaos. Afghanistan is no longer the source of a terrorist threat to the world. Security and development are still fragile, but the country has changed. Now, with a new leadership in Kabul, we can work on a peaceful future for Afghanistan. We will continue to support that and we shall do so as friends of the Afghan people. ▪
